The Population Challenging Key to Global Survival Case Assignment

The Population Challenging Key to Global Survival Case Assignment

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The Population Challenging Key to Global Survival Case Assignment

 

This paper was researched and written by Terry M. Redding, a communications consultant with a Master of Arts in applied anthropology.

Number 2, 2007

The Population Challenge: Key to Global Survival

The 21st Century Papers are a public affairs series made available as a public service by the Population Institute to policy makers and journalists in developing and industrialized countries. Contributors of $100 or more annually to the Population Institute receive copies free of charge, upon request. Single copies of

this edition may be purchased for $3.00 plus $1.25 for postage. Orders of more than 30 copies can be obtained for $2.00 per copy plus postage. Please make checks payable to:

Treasurer, Population Institute 107 2nd Street, NE

Washington, DC 20002

Copyright The Population Institute 2007

Acronyms

APPG All Party Parliamentary Group (UK)

CPIA Country Policy and Institutional Assessment

DRC Democratic Republic of Congo

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization (UN)

FfP Fund for Peace

GDP Gross domestic product

IDA International Development Agency

LICUS Low Income countries under stress

MDG Millennium Development Goal

MMRs Maternal mortality ratios

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (US)

UN United Nations

UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization

UNFPA United National Population Fund

UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund

WHO World Health Organization

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THE POPULATION CHALLENGE: KEY TO GLOBAL SURVIVAL

Neglecting the Human Connection

Stabilizing the growth of the world’s human population is a goal that must be achieved if we are to preserve our options for the future and improve the odds for the world’s sustainability. Challenges such as climate change and global warming, fragile and failed states, migration and refugee crises, food and water insecurity, poverty, disease, debt, and illiteracy are caused or exacerbated by unchecked rapid population growth.

Discussions on addressing these challenges, however, often neglect serious consideration of high fertility and family planning. Former U.S. President Bill Clinton singled out population growth as the key issue that candidates in the 2008 presidential election were avoiding.1 This is puzzling and troubling, as population growth is the single world issue that binds all the others together; it is the root of many problems affecting the tree of humanity.

Indeed, trees provide an apt analogy to the current global reality: In countries with quality reproductive health services and policies serving as the roots, the branches—including economics, health, and education—are stable. As this paper will demonstrate, in countries with poor reproductive health services and policies for their roots, many branches are not healthy and cannot thrive; the tree may even fail. Just as the health and even the survival of a tree rely on strong roots, the health and viability of a country and indeed the planet can be traced to population.

Still, unlike many other global problems and crises, the technology to meet the population challenge is readily available and extremely cost effective, if we have the will to supply it to those in need.

By the year 2050, world population is projected to grow from its current 6.7 billion to 9.3 billion2; less optimistic calculations, based on fertility not declining from 2006 rates, place the figure at nearly 12 billion.3 Practically all growth is esti- mated to occur in the developing countries, especially in the poorest of those coun- tries, which already produce virtually all of the world’s human numbers.

While many nations have reduced rapid population growth, more than 3 bil- lion people currently under 25 years old will soon enter their prime reproductive years. Providing this largest youth generation in history with appropriate sexual and reproductive health services and education is essential to ease poverty, increase edu- cational opportunities, preserve the environment, improve health, and provide political security. Meeting this challenge will be especially important in developing countries considered “fragile states,” wherein booming populations would further stress already limited resources.

For population growth to slow and birthrates decline, Christopher Flavin, President of the Worldwatch Institute, has said, “It is essential that women and men

around the world have increased access to sound information, a range of contracep- tive options, and related health services. Access to voluntary family planning allows women and couples to time their births and choose the size of their families.”4

But at this critical moment, international support for family planning ser- vices faces ongoing annual reductions as the political climate has chilled and funds from many sectors are diverted to HIV/AIDS programs. In many countries, contra- ceptive use has risen only slowly or has stalled.5

Ironically, in many developing countries, sexual and reproductive health education and services, especially meeting family planning needs, presents a cost- effective component in mitigating any of the above-mentioned issues.

The Challenge of Unmet Need

At the core of addressing population growth is managing unmet need. There is well docu- mented unmet need for family plan- ning, especially among the 2 billion people living on less than $2 a day.

Slower population growth offers a demographic dividend, allowing a country to invest more in education and health, thus serving the broader agendas of social and economic development.6,7

It is also recognized that women are at the center of repro- ductive health efforts and address- ing unmet need. As demographer Ruth Dixon-Mueller explains:

Population control policies and programs would probably be unnecessary if women could exercise their basic economic, political and social rights and genuine reproductive choice. In addition, programs need to address the widespread unmet need in many countries for reproductive health services that would enable women to regulate the timing of their childbearing and, in particular, help women to avoid unwanted and mistimed pregnancies and unsafe abortion. 8

The definition of unmet need has undergone refinements over 25 years of discussion, but the basic objective is to estimate the proportion of women not using contraception who either want to cease further childbearing or want to postpone the next birth at least two years.9 The greatest need is in sub-Saharan Africa, where an average of 26 percent of married women are in the unmet need category.10 Other reports estimate the need among never-married women at 9 percent.11

2

Health

Poverty

Education

Security

Food

Water

POPULATION

Population is the foundation that enables succession in other sectors

3

One calculation shows 113.6 million women (both married and unmarried) have an unmet need for contraception in the developing world.12 The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that over 120 million couples worldwide do not use contraceptives, despite wishing to limit or space their children.13

While unmet need has lessened globally in recent decades, there are many more women now, in absolute numbers, than in years past, and many more young- er women. Today there are almost 3 billion people under the age of 25, the largest generation of young people in history, 87 percent of whom live in the developing world. Meeting their sexual and reproductive health needs is central to their well being, as well as to population stabilization, poverty reduction, and sustainable development. The decisions of this “critical cohort” in the timing, sizing and spac- ing of their families will be a key factor in whether world population growth will be stabilized.14

Where the need is met, family planning services work. In the 28 most popu- lous countries receiving U.S. family planning assistance, the average number of children per family has dropped from 6.1 in the 1960s to 4.2 in 2003. In Colombia, Indonesia, and Mexico, the family average is three children, and in Taiwan and Thailand, early recipients of U.S. assistance, the average is two children.15

The West African country of Ghana made family planning a public health priority in the early 1980s, and since then modern contraceptive use among mar- ried women has risen from 5.2 percent in 1988 to 18.7 percent in 2003. Ghana’s rate of 64 infant deaths per 1,000 live births stands out from the regional average of 100 deaths, and the rate of HIV infection (2.2 percent) is half the West African average.16

Further, one estimate shows that family planning services are preventing three-quarters of the induced abortions that would otherwise occur in the develop- ing world.17 In addition, if every woman in the developing world with unmet need for a modern method used one, 52 million unintended pregnancies could be avoid- ed annually.

Of the 46 million pregnancies that are terminated every year, only 60 per- cent are carried out under safe conditions. Almost all unsafe abortions take place in the developing world, with South America having the highest ratio. Although age patterns differ regionally, two-thirds of unsafe abortions occur among women aged 15 to 30.18

The Cost-Effective Alternative

Prevention would seem a better policy. The cost to provide the services and supplies is estimated at $3.9 billion annually, but the savings would be much greater.

One example cited is a typical low-fertility Latin American country where every dollar spent on family planning saves $12 in health and education costs.19 Unfortunately, inflation-adjusted family planning spending has fallen since the mid- 1990s. In the United States, President Bush’s requests for overseas family planning

4

program funding has been reduced from $425 million during the tenure of Secretary of State Colin Powell to $357 million under Secretary Condoleezza Rice.

The $34 million appropriated by Congress annually to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) but blocked by the Bush administration, by one esti- mate, could have prevented 2 million unintentional pregnancies, nearly 800,000 abortions, 4,700 maternal deaths, and 77,000 infant and child deaths.20

The planet now carries more people of child-bearing age than ever before, and yet a desired and cost-effective component in addressing the world’s booming population is largely ignored in most policy discussions. The funds invested now in population programs will prevent conflicts, benefit the planet, and yield higher returns than any other investments in humanity’s future. A convergence of potential calamities looms; offering couples the freedom to determine their own fertility is perhaps the only practical, the only realistic, option.

The Population Challenging Key to Global Survival Case Assignment

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